Q4 TV Market Predictions

Authors: OPTS Home Planning Team

The latest TV forecasts are in and the TV market is in full recovery mode, with Q4 set to show 0.5% revenue growth. Q4 TV ad spend is forecast to be down 2.7% yoy, however compared to an industry average of -10.5% this number appears more positive. VOD ad spend is projected to be up 3%, the only channel to experience growth, compared to previous years due mainly to the nationwide closure of cinemas.

This is likely as result of many media owners adapting their policies and ways of working to provide additional flexibility to advertisers. Channel 4 has made the decision to do away with the standard 8-week advanced booking deadlines and will permanently move to a 4-week deadline in order to give advertisers more long-term “flexibility”. In an email to advertisers, Matt Salmon, Channel 4’s director of sales, said: “It is clear from client feedback, that the shortened 4-Week AB has been well received and this has contributed to the fast recovery of broadcast budgets this autumn.

The tiered COVID restrictions should boost TV viewing across Q4, though estimates remain conservative. C4 had great start to Q4 with Bake Off up 8% yoy, averaging 9.8m viewers. While the new series of Taskmaster launched with impressive 8.1 TVRs! ITV have seen similar success with the first episode of I’m A Celebrity opening to 10.9m viewers (its highest since the 2018 final!) and peaking at 12m. Despite ongoing restrictions we're not expecting the same wide scale revenue drops as seen in Q2 as the market is now more prepared.

Source: Channel 4 / Broadcasters / BARB / PMX / Campaign / WARC / AA